I’m going to embed a couple of videos from Breaking Points—combined they’re not more than 20 minutes, and they’re very substantive. What I like about them, in part, is that they repeat some of the things I’ve been saying. For example, about Trump funneling money to Iran through the GCC states, under cover of Bessent saying he’s going to give Iran’s money to the GCC for reconstruction. I’ll provide some brief transcript excerpts. The point of it all is simply that Trump—for very good reasons—is totally desperate to make this rolling disaster end. Like most delusional politicians he probably thinks he can makes things right again, if can just make the bleeding stop. He can’t, because the worst—in an economic sense—is almost certainly yet to come. So:
COMPLETE CAPITULATION’: Jeremy Scahill Breaks Down Iran
Iran was able to win some last minute concessions in some of the language. One of them involved a more swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the pull back of some American military assets from the region. But the other is that they say that mediators told them that the United States was going to compel the Israelis to pull their troops out of southern Lebanon. That was not in the draft text that I saw a few days ago. If the Iranian version of this is right, what they’re saying is that Trump is saying he’s going to force the Israelis to pull out of southern Lebanon.
That’s a real measure of Trump’s desperation.
Trump is saying if they don’t make a deal, he’s going to resume the war. I’m skeptical of that …
I’m very skeptical of that, too. 60 days from now inflation will be hitting like a ton of bricks, and Trump is gonna restart the war that was heavily to blame for the inflation, right before the midterms? No.
The midterm elections are coming up and the reality is that Iran fought the United States for roughly 100 days both militarily and diplomatically to a standoff …
But for Iran to fight the USraelis to a standoff = a huge victory for Iran—and for BRICS. There’s a clear winner and loser here, and Iran is the winner. Trump is the loser.
… where the president of the United States is desperate to try to spin capitulation as victory.
Right. Can you talk a little bit more about the money piece of this for Iran, because I think this is a particularly sensitive issue for Trump and his coalition. They made a big deal about the assets that were unfrozen under the JCPOA, the pallets of cash being shipped to the Iranian “terrorist regime.” We heard all kinds of rhetoric about that. … There’s some interesting things that, if you read between the lines of some statements that Vice President JD Vance made recently, if you look at some of what Iran is saying, it’s interesting.
Let’s start from the biggest sort of perspective on this. Iran has said that it wants at least $24 billion in its frozen assets. This is Iranian money that’s been frozen. They want it repatriated to Iran at the front end of a deal. That was Iran’s opening position. Behind the scenes, there was discussion of phasing it … But behind the scenes, there’s been a flurry of activity involving Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates. Reports of money already changing hands. The Emiratis are denying that, but Iranian sources have told me that “Trump wants to find a way to give us our money without saying that he gave us our money.” So, it’s possible that this will kind of not become entirely public right away for the reasons you just mentioned, that Trump wants to be able to say, “I didn’t do what Barack Hussein Obama did,” and give them cash at the front end of this deal.
The other day, JD Vance posted on X a remarkably kind of diplomatic statement about the state of affairs and within that he said, you know, “no money is going to change hands at the beginning of this. Iran’s not going to be given money for showing up to a meeting meeting or signing a document.” That’s very different than Trump saying “no money is ever going to exchange hands.” What I think Vance is indicating is that there is this alternative process going on.
But the reality is the Iranians aren’t going to move forward unless a significant portion of that $24 billion is in one way or another repatriated. And the whole thing really is about narrative spin right now.
There’s a lot of face saving going on, isn’t there?
I think the the the bigger issue, and I think this is going to be the center of the whole ball game, is going to be Lebanon. Israel is saying “we aren’t bound by this agreement.” This is going to be a real test of whether Trump actually wants this deal, because if the Israelis continue their siege on Lebanon, the Iranians have shown quite clearly that at least right now they are not going to sit on their hands. They’re saying they didn’t strike because they got capitulations from Trump at the 11th hour, and they wouldn’t have held off otherwise.
The only transcript excerpt I’ll offer for this one comes from the end. From the beginning of this war I maintained that it was an open question whether Trump would make it as POTUS until the midterms. Obviously, the smart money will always be on the side of Trump making it that far, with the major crisis coming with the new Congress in January. Nevertheless, as Breaking Points says, the wheels really are coming off. Trump is trying to sell bread and circuses, but …
I think one thing that’s telling is obviously the wheels have come off of this administration. The approval rating is in the toilet. The midterms are going to be a total blowout for Republicans. The writing is on the wall with I think all of that. And so you do have people who are going to be rats on a sinking ship who are like, “Okay, how do I position myself for what comes after?” because it’s increasingly clear that there is going to be an “after”–and that “after” may be coming sooner rather than later. So, I think we’ll probably see more leaks, not less, as the regime days wear on.
“Sooner rather than later.” That’s the point. What’s happening is not your ordinary political screwup. It’s end of empire screwup. That’s a crisis.
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